In order to be successful in e-mobility, climate policy must create planning certainty for industrial and private investments in the future, and be stable and socially balanced across legislative periods. This is the prerequisite for economic resilience and provides our society and investments with the necessary orientation. This and the statements that follow primarily stem from the latest analyses from Agora Energiewende (German Energy Transformation Initiative).
Agora suggests that expanding public transport capacity is the key to improving mobility services for citizens. Investment funding will make it easier for people on lower incomes to purchase electric passenger cars, while a mobility allowance can provide some relief in the short term. Lower pollution and noise levels, in conjunction with the exercise associated with cycling and walking and fewer sealed areas, ultimately have a positive impact on health, quality of life and the wellbeing of society as a whole. Implementing this consistently would result in an expected transport energy demand of around 280 TWh in 2045, which is less than half of the energy demand seen in 2023.
But current figures paint a far less positive picture. Compared to 2023, transport sector emissions fell by just one percent in 2024, or by the equivalent of 1.5 million metric tons down to 144 million metric tons of CO2. This means that emissions remain way above the annual target of 125 million metric tons set by the Federal Climate Change Act. By the end of November 2024, there were 347,000 newly registered electric cars. This equates to 26 percent fewer fully electric vehicles being registered compared to the same period in the previous year, which is a long way off the announced target of 15 million e-cars by 2030.
Reducing emissions in the transport sector is simply not possible without additional tools and measures. Agora suggests the following measures:
In fact, producing the target number of 15 million electric vehicles will only be possible if Chinese manufacturers are included. Increasing import duties on Chinese vehicles will make ramping up electromobility considerably more expensive, and would lead to a shortfall in electric vehicles of 1.3 million in 2030.
Open competition is the only way to promote innovation and ensure that German manufacturers remain competitive. Even though, in the short term, retaining internal combustion engines reduces the demand for investment, in the long run, German manufacturers can only secure market shares by getting ahead of the game and offering an attractive e-vehicle portfolio.
